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The Unraveling: West Africa's Battle Between Ballots and Bullets

COTONOU, Benin — In the early hours of Sunday, December 7, 2025, soldiers appeared on state television in Benin to announce the dissolution of the government, the latest tremor in a region shaken by military takeovers. While government forces moved to assert control, the brief broadcast from the self-proclaimed "Military Committee for Refoundation" underscored a stark reality: West Africa, once a beacon of democratic progress, is now widely described as the world's "coup belt".

The attempt in Benin—a nation celebrated for its political stability and where President Patrice Talon was preparing to respect term limits—marks a troubling expansion of this crisis. It follows the ninth successful coup in West and Central Africa since 2020, with soldiers seizing power just last month in Guinea-Bissau. This new wave of military interventions, often met with public celebration, represents not a sudden collapse but the culmination of deep-seated failures in governance, security, and the very practice of democracy.

A Region in the Grip of a New Wave

The current period of instability represents what analysts call Africa's "third wave" of coups. Distinct from the post-independence and Cold War eras, this wave is primarily targeted at civilian leaders who have failed to deliver democratic dividends following the transitions of the 1990s. Since 2020, a continuous chain of successful military takeovers has stretched across the Sahel and coastal West Africa.

Recent Successful Military Coups in West & Central Africa (2020-2025)

| Country | Date of Coup | Immediate Context |

| Mali | Aug 2020 / May 2021 | Security crisis, public protests against government |

| Guinea | Sep 2021 | President Alpha Condé's controversial third-term bid. |

| Burkina Faso | Jan 2022 / Sep 2022 | Government failure to contain jihadist insurgency. |

| Niger | Jul 2023 | Perceived governance failures and insecurity. |

| Gabon | Aug 2023 | Disputed election ending the 56-year Bongo dynasty. |

| Guinea-Bissau | Nov 2025 | Contested election, both candidates declared victory. |

| Benin | Dec 2025 (Attempt) | Attempted takeover ahead of presidential election. |

The Roots of Discontent: Where Democracy Delivered Only a Shell

The popular support that often greets these coups is a damning indictment of the state of governance. Experts argue the support is less an endorsement of the military and more a desperate protest against civilian leaders perceived as corrupt, out of touch, and ineffective.

1.  The Failure of "Hybrid Regimes": Many states adopted the procedural shells of democracy—elections—without its substantive pillars: accountable government, an independent judiciary, and a free press. This created systems where incumbents, like Guinea's Alpha Condé or Gabon's Ali Bongo, used the veneer of elections to cling to power for decades, breeding massive public cynicism. As one analyst noted, "The life chances of these citizens have not improved... because stability has been prioritised over true democratic dividends".

2.  The Security Vacuum: Perhaps the most visceral failure has been the state's inability to protect its citizens. In Burkina Faso and Mali, governments lost control of vast territories to jihadist insurgents. The deadly attack in Burkina Faso in November 2021, which killed 53, became a rallying point against a government seen as helpless. The military often justifies its interventions by citing this security collapse.

3.  Economic Desperation and Elite Capture: With Africa's median age at 18 but its leaders averaging 77.5 years old, a profound generational and economic disconnect has festered. Soaring inflation, youth unemployment, and poverty persist despite the continent's vast resources, which are often seen as looted by a connected elite. Citizens are left asking a fundamental question: "what should democracy deliver for us?".

The Military's False Promise and the Authoritarian Spiral

The initial euphoria that follows a coup is often short-lived. History and current evidence suggest military regimes rarely solve the problems that brought them to power and frequently usher in worse human rights abuses.

In Niger, which saw a coup in 2023, Amnesty International documents a severe deterioration of civic space under the new military authorities. 

Actions include:

*   Arbitrary Detentions: Former President Mohamed Bazoum, his wife, and former officials remain detained despite court orders for their release.
*   Crushing Dissent: Political party activities are suspended, journalists are arrested, and independent media outlets have been shut down. "If you criticize the government, be sure that you risk being arrested," one civil society member reported.
*   Erosion of Institutions: The military council has rolled back press freedoms and established a national registry allegedly used to target critics.

An African researcher succinctly described the dilemma: supporting a coup is "like having a sore wound that is itchy and you open the wound to itch it. It feels so good for some seconds... but you are going to be worse off".

The Path Forward: Rebuilding from the Ground Up

The solution to the coup crisis does not lie in swapping civilian autocrats for military ones. Analysts insist the only sustainable path is through genuine institutional rebuilding that restores public trust.

*   Strengthening the Democratic Core: This requires moving beyond elections to build robust, independent legislatures, judiciaries, and electoral commissions free from executive manipulation.
*   Empowering Civil Society: A vibrant civil society is essential to hold power accountable. Across Africa, a new generation of activists—youth organizers, artists, tech entrepreneurs—are already demanding a democracy that delivers dignity and justice.
*   Rethinking Regional and International Responses: Sanctions that punish populations often backfire, fueling nationalist rhetoric and bolstering junta rule. Regional bodies like ECOWAS and the African Union face a conundrum: how to uphold constitutional order when the people themselves seem to welcome its overthrow. The focus must shift to supporting internal democratic forces and addressing the governance deficits that cause the instability.

The attempted coup in Benin is a warning. It shows that no country in the region is immune. The future of West Africa hangs on a critical choice: between continuing a cycle of failed civilian rule and military correction, or the harder work of building democracies that are truly by and for the people. The soldiers on television promise a "new era," but history teaches that era only dawns when citizens, not armies, define its terms.

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