The recent terror attack in Sydney, Australia, has prompted intelligence officials and counterterrorism experts to issue urgent warnings. They argue that global jihadist networks are expanding their influence, contradicting the perception held by many Western governments that groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) are on the decline.
Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and managing editor of The Long War Journal, identifies a persistent miscalculation in Western policy. "We’ve always been quick to declare terrorist organizations defeated and insignificant, and that couldn’t be further from the truth," he stated. He points out that despite the loss of its territorial caliphate, ISIS maintains a significant presence, with approximately 2,000 fighters in Afghanistan alone, as noted in a recent United Nations report.
According to Roggio and other analysts, the attack in Australia is clear evidence of a broader, interconnected resurgence. Israeli officials have observed a pattern of attempted or disrupted plots across Europe and North America over the past year, indicating an escalation rather than isolated incidents.
Corri Zoli, a research associate at Syracuse University’s Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism, emphasizes that governments must recognize a sharp increase in the targeting of religious minorities, particularly Jewish communities. She notes this trend has accelerated following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. "With Israel’s war against Hamas, it’s given new life for people to attack Jews worldwide," Roggio added, explaining that the conflict serves as a powerful radicalizing tool.
Experts warn that terrorist organizations are adeptly merging digital propaganda with physical recruitment networks. Analysts from institutions like the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point note these networks are actively seeking vulnerabilities in Western nations, exploiting online ecosystems to radicalize individuals far from traditional conflict zones.
The Sydney attack underscores this networked threat. The attacker, Naveed Akram, was known to Australian authorities for his extremist associations since 2019. He was linked to radical cleric Wissam Haddad and had maintained contact with Isaac El Matari, an Australian who claimed to be an ISIS commander and is currently imprisoned for insurgency-related crimes. Roggio strongly rejects the "lone wolf" characterization for such individuals, arguing they are products of supportive extremist ecosystems that provide ideology and validation.
The threat landscape is broad, extending beyond ISIS. "This isn’t just the Islamic State. It’s al Qaeda," Roggio said, noting that al Qaeda also persists in Afghanistan, often in collaboration with the Taliban. "These groups aren’t defeated. They’re just operating differently."
A senior intelligence source framed the challenge in stark terms, suggesting a fluid and evolving danger: "Today is ISIS, tomorrow is Iran."
The situation is further complicated by domestic security concerns in the West. Morgan Murphy, a national security expert and former Trump administration official, argued that migration policies have created an internal security risk. "Because of an unprecedented influx of unvetted, Islamist, fighting-age male migrants into both Europe and the United States, the West now faces a threat from within," he stated, calling this a "national security disaster" stemming from policies that failed to consider long-term consequences.
Ultimately, experts stress that the threat remains active and adaptive. "Just because we want to declare the war against terror over doesn’t mean it’s over," Roggio concluded. "We wanted to end our involvement in these wars, but the enemy gets a vote. That’s what we just saw in Australia."
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