The statistics read like a wartime bulletin, yet they describe daily life in Nigeria. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, 465 violent incidents claimed 1,201 lives and saw 791 people kidnapped. Behind this relentless tide of terror, banditry, and communal violence lies a singular, enabling force: the uncontrolled flood of illicit firearms into the hands of non-state actors.
Nigeria is now the epicenter of West Africa's arms crisis, accounting for a staggering 70% of the region's estimated 11 million illegal small arms and light weapons (SALW).
A 2021 survey by the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW) revealed over six million illegal weapons in circulation within the country, with about 70% of them in the hands of criminals and terrorists. This proliferation has created a "quiet but deadly emergency" that threatens the very fabric of the state.
How did Africa's most populous nation become so saturated with weapons that its security forces are often outgunned? The answer is a complex web of historical spillover, systemic failure, and crippling demand.
The Supply Lines: From Libyan Stockpiles to Leaking Armouries
The journey of many weapons begins far from Nigeria's borders. The collapse of the Libyan state created a massive, unsecured arsenal that has fueled instability across the Sahel. The Nigerian Defence Headquarters has explicitly linked the flow of arms from Libya and the wider Sahel crisis to the exacerbation of insurgency and terrorism within its borders.
However, the external pipeline is only part of the story. A critical and deeply troubling internal source has been identified: the Nigerian security establishment itself. The Director-General of the NCCSALW, DIG Johnson Kokumo (retd.), has warned that "weak armoury management within Nigeria’s security institutions is fuelling the proliferation" of weapons. He attributes this to poor control, oversight, and corruption, which have enabled weapons to leak from official stockpiles directly to criminals.
Furthermore, terrorists routinely augment their arsenals by ambushing security forces and stealing their rifles, a tactic described by the military as "textbook".
This internal leakage is compounded by a legal framework that is utterly unfit for purpose. The country still relies on the Firearms Act of 1959, a law described by officials as "completely obsolete and incapable of addressing today’s realities". Its flaws are legion: weak penalties, poor regulation of dealers, no provisions for modern military-grade weapons, and ineffective tracing mechanisms.
The Demand Engine: Poverty, Grievance, and the Failure of Governance
While stemming the supply is crucial, experts argue that the relentless demand for weapons is driven by deeper, homegrown pathologies. Research indicates that adverse socio-economic and political conditions in Nigeria are primarily responsible for the increased demand for SALWs. High rates of poverty, unemployment, inequality, and the marginalization of specific groups have led to the emergence of armed bands and criminal networks.
In the absence of state protection, justice, or economic opportunity, communities and individuals feel compelled to arm themselves for self-defense, settling disputes violently and fueling cycles of revenge. This dynamic is starkly visible in the long-running farmer-herder conflicts, where both sides now often possess illegal firearms. The weapons have also become tools of political manipulation, with armed groups used to oppress opposition during elections, undermining the democratic process.
The Consequences: A Nation Consumed by Violence
The impact of this arms epidemic is catastrophic and multifaceted. The NCCSALW has directly linked illicit arms dealings to the creation of 2.2 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and 26,000 refugees. Economies are distorted, peace-building is impeded, and essential services collapse in conflict zones.
More directly, these weapons are the oxygen sustaining the nation's myriad security challenges. They enable the terrorism of Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Northeast, the rampant banditry and kidnapping in the Northwest and Northcentral, and violent communal clashes across the country. The situation has grown so dire that it has attracted uncomfortable global attention, including a U.S. congressional hearing on religious persecution and Nigeria's designation as a "Country of Particular Concern".
A Path Forward: Law, Leverage, and Long-Term Healing
Confronting this crisis demands a multi-pronged strategy that moves beyond kinetic military operations. There is a growing consensus on the necessary steps:
1. Legal and Institutional Reform: The immediate repeal and replacement of the 1959 Firearms Act with a modern law is paramount. Fortunately, a foundation exists. President Bola Tinubu's signing of the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons Act in June 2024 has provided the NCCSALW with a robust legal framework to intensify its fight against the illicit trade. This act aims to strengthen institutional capacity, enhance enforcement mechanisms, and improve border security.
2. Securing the Supply: This involves a dual approach. Internally, a ruthless overhaul of armoury management and accountability within security agencies is needed to plug leaks. Externally, bolstering border security through technology and increased patrols is essential, especially given that Nigeria has nearly 1,900 unmanned entry points. Regional and international cooperation to disrupt trafficking networks is also critical.
3. Addressing the Demand: As long as the root causes of conflict persist, the demand for weapons will remain. The government must move beyond policy pronouncements to genuinely address poverty, unemployment, social injustice, and the lack of effective governance[reference:26]. Investing in community dialogue, reconciliation, and alternative livelihoods is not a soft option but a security imperative.
4. Innovative Engagement: Some propose creative solutions, such as formally registering and harnessing the skills of local artisanal gunsmiths, integrating them into the legal defense industry rather than simply persecuting them[reference:27].
Conclusion
Nigeria stands at a precipice. The proliferation of small arms is no longer just a security challenge; it is a fundamental crisis of governance and state authority. The weapons in the hands of bandits, terrorists, and vigilantes represent a direct challenge to the state's constitutional monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
The way forward requires unprecedented political will, inter-agency collaboration, and a holistic approach that couples decisive enforcement with a sincere commitment to healing the societal wounds that drive violence. Without this, the proliferation of arms risks eclipsing the authority of the state itself, turning Africa's giant into a landscape of permanently armed enclaves. The time for bold, coordinated action is not tomorrow—it is now.
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